For those of you that are sitting around on pins and needles waiting for an invite to Google Wave, do not waste your time.  I was doing the same thing from May until October until some nice gentleman sent me an invite.  This invite came in October, over a month ago and so far there is still no one on it.  Of the more than 200 people on my Gmail account, only five people are on Google Wave.  Of those five people, I have only seen one of them online in a month.  I sent messages to all of them and got one response.  I am not blaming these people because they are likely doing the same thing as I am… sitting waiting for someone to get online.  Google Wave is supposedly opening up their system slowly so that it does not overwhelm them.  Unfortunately they have disabled inviting friends and family so you are left with no one to test it on. 

The five people on my list are acquaintances that I really do not know that well except for an occasional conversation on Twitter.  My heart ache that I have is that after having it for a month, I STILL cannot even test it because I cannot try it out on anyone.  Secondly, many people on social networks talk about this as though they are some elitist snob because they have an invite and others do not.  They are better people because they have access to this disappointment of a program.

Honestly, Google Wave does not even look that impressive to me.  If it has any special functionality, I cannot tell because there is no way to use it.  It is so exciting being able to sit in a room with a toy when you cannot show it to anyone.  How fun it is to go on a vacation by yourself.  I think many of the stories about this program are similar to those that follow and worship celebrities.  If it came from Google then it must be angelic and have supernatural powers.  If it came from Google then it is automatically good without even trying it.  We know that is not true, just look at Google Talk.  That program has been out for several years and it still cannot compete with the worst instant messenger out there.  I am not trying to bash Google but rather trying to put some perspective in the discussion.  Right now, if someone were to ask me how I like Google Wave after having it for a month, I would have to return the question of how they like their girlfriend that they have never spoken to or seen a picture of.  It is the same thing here.  I have a Google Wave account but cannot do anything on it.

I would say the program is a huge disappointment.  I would say the great Google has disappointed us with this system.  What is the purpose in opening up a program for testing if you are not going to allow the people to test it?  You cannot test a program that you cannot use.  After reading hundreds of articles about this great system that will revolutionize the world and replace email, I have to say it is not going to happen.  This is sort of like when a new movie comes out and has thousands of commercials and stories about it and then when it finally comes out, it is a disappointment.  I will predict from what I can see of Google Wave that it will not replace email like they advertise.

There will be the Google worshippers that will be ‘ga ga’ about it and talk about how Google has saved the world again, but outside of that crowd, it will not become mainstream.  I watched the video online about it and I know people.  Those that are not Google worshippers will say it is too complicated.  Heck, I cannot even get people to try Skype and it is the easiest program around.  People want the ‘big button’ to push and do not want to think beyond that.  For this reason, Linux will never be mainstream because these people cannot figure this out.  This is part of the Apple craze.  Their minute 10% market share goes after this crowd that wants to use big buttons.  Remember the old America Online commercials?  They would say “It is so easy, it is no wonder we’re number one.”  Their target audience was those that knew nothing but how to click the big button.  This audience is larger than people think.  For this reason, I think that Google Wave will not become as big as the prophets proclaim.  The Google worshippers will kneel before the Google throne.  Many will try it on a short term basis but the vast majority of the people will yawn and go about their way.

This article is not just ‘sour grapes’ as you may think.  I’ll admit that I am completely disappointed in Google’s policy of forbidding us from even adding our family on there but that is not what is driving my entire opinion.  I just know human nature.   I will say that Google does have some pretty good toys but this one will not be a long term success.  After looking at it for a month, I have changed my opinion of the system.  With my own experiences dealing with those the do not even try new programs, I have to change my prediction that this program will not become mainstream.  That is just my opinion but I am VERY certain that it is correct in this case.